Bordeaux 2024 En Primeur

En primeur notes
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Hello Forumites! Here we go again! I hope you all have been keeping well these past 10 months or so since we evaluated Bordeaux En Primeur 2023. Now it’s the turn of the 2024s.

Since then the wine world hasn’t got much easier, and the threat of tariffs put a temporary stop to transatlantic trading in the secondary market. The new release has just got more expensive for Dollar-denominated buyers, and the Bordelais are going to need to respond on multiple fronts to be relevant and engage potential buyers - both established and new.

Even before Dollar appreciation we heard stories that Chateau owners had reconciled to chopping prices by another quarter or so over and above the reductions in 2023 over 2022, in order to meet the market where it expects to do business. Will the US currency’s depreciation require further adjustments as the Euro strengthens?

2024 is a cool, somewhat damp, earlier drinking vintage, one for those who appreciate a more restrained, temperate drink. So prices were set to fall anyway, whilst talk of volume reductions affecting the supply-demand curve for cooler vintages have always been a red herring. Yet despite this, these ‘off-vintages’ have sometimes proven to be a good opportunity to buy into well-priced First Growths and right bank equivalents. That is, if priced right.

Furthermore, according to Giles Cooper of Chelsea Vintners, the wine being made in Bordeaux in recent vintages is a significant improvement on past vintages, on the basis of which 2024 comprises world-class wines that have done a good job of surmounting the vagaries of the weather.

That as may be, it’s a harder sell than it might otherwise have been when buyers of fabulous 2016s and more recent vintages have seen many of their purchases flatline or lose value whilst storage charges mount up.

Before we get into it and start doing relative value analysis to spot the winners and losers, I should update everyone on quite a big change at my company Wine Owners. As we increasingly focused on software as a service (SaaS) platforms for the wine trade, the collection management and trading exchange, Wine Collector, became an increasingly less significant part of our business. At the same time the number of businesses using Wine Hub software as their system of record has mushroomed. With the focus firmly on business management software, it made sense to find a more suitable home for the consumer business.

Earlier this month we put Wine Collector live, following its acquisition last December by Nickolls & Perks, the oldest regional wine merchant in the UK (whose origins date back to the end of the 18th century). So this year I’ll be doing relative value analysis as a user of the platform rather than its owner! I expect the Nickolls & Perks team will help us out with their vintage thoughts.

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A strong start with Batailley. As Liv-ex have summarised it, “this price might not ignite the campaign”!

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So here’s the relative value analysis cohort of vintages that we’ll be comparing (in the main) this year. All are so-called ‘off-vintages’. All proved capable of producing some very good wine.

2024, 2021, 2017, 2013, 2011

In the case of 2011, though unloved, it included some absolute stonkers (as well as stinkers). Those who have been following my favourites over the years will know of my stonking love for VCC 2011 and its hefty percentage of Cab Franc in the blend (now available for 10% above its release price at £1250) and the just as magnificent Mission Haut Brion. Depressingly my inbox tells me MHB 2011 was selling for £1,150 per 6x75cl IB at release in 2012. Today MHB 2011 can be had for £850 per 6-pack. That’s a buy by the way…the wine is kaleidoscopic.

See how difficult this is going to be? MHB 2023 is £1100 per 6x75cl, its 2011 version is £850 per 6 pack. You tell me where does 2024 need to release to make sense of buying now versus waiting a few years or a decade?

Back to relative value analysis, remember, the longer the bar on the relative value chart and the bigger the difference in length between the longest bar and the next longest one, the more likely is that the longest is a buy.

Those are the rules!

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Ch Batailley

@Matthew_Ayre thank you, you are a star for getting in there.

I do agree, when was the last time that Batailley ignited a campaign?

Notwithstanding, it is clearly a beautifully judged wine this year, following the (embargoed) note from James Lawther:

“Dark fruit and spice. Bright and firm in texture. Tannins present and integrated. Classic in style. Potential for ageing.”

£25 per bottle In Bond for 2024 versus £31 for the utterly magnificent 2022 HRH tribute wine that was starting to really show its colours at Wine Paris this year.

Here’s the price and points:

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And the relative value analysis:

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How lovely to start off on a positive ‘buy’ note, though worth saying that small differences in cost per bottle at the lower end of the spectrum can translate into a big percentage, and that can favourably skew relative value analysis. Still, nice effort for a very nice wine with legs on it.

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Welcome back Nick :blush:

For those interested here is a timetable I saw on a French website:

            23 Avril
            Château Pontet-Canet
            
            28 Avril
            Château Chasse-Spleen
            
            29 Avril
            Château Lafite Rothschild
            
            Les Carruades de Lafite
            
            Château Duhart-Milon
            
            30 Avril
            Château Angélus
            
            Le Carillon d’Angélus
            
            Mai
            6 Mai
            Château Cheval Blanc
            
            Le Petit Cheval, Second vin du Château Cheval Blanc
            
            Château Smith Haut Lafitte Rouge
            
            Château Smith Haut Lafitte Blanc
            
            7 Mai
            Château Montrose
            
            La Dame de Montrose
            
            13 Mai
            Château d’Armailhac
            
            Château Clerc Milon
            
            Petit Mouton, Second vin du Château Mouton Rothschild
            
            Château Mouton Rothschild
            
            Château Coutet
            
            Château Beychevelle
            
            20 Mai
            Château Haut-Brion
            
            Château La Mission Haut-Brion
            
            La Chapelle de la Mission Haut-Brion
            
            Château Quintus

Pontet Canet had set the tone for EP2019 with a very attractive release price. Let’s see what happens this year.

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Thanks for this. Just wondering if it makes sense to include 2013 as it was such a dismal vintage. Would perhaps 2014 make more sense? Based on the few articles I’ve read on the 2024 vintage, it could be an interesting comparison, also from a pricing point of view

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thank you Matthieu!

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Yes Matthieu, having checked in with the Nickolls & Perks guys, who spent the week there, they agree that 2014 is more comparable than 2013.

“The better wines share a similar classic and elegant profile, but there is more consistency in 2014.”

“2014 certainly at lower levels is more reliable but with wine quality generally moving on, the best in 2024 are probably as good as 2014. The 2013s are perhaps where 2024 would have been without the crazy efforts made to save the vintage.”

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Yes, I definitely heard the same re Mouton stable

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Thank you very much for your analysis Nick, as always. Re: the vintages to compare for the value analysis, whilst I certainly see the logic in picking 2024, 2021, 2017, 2013, 2011 as comparable vintages given their ‘off’ nature, for the purpose of a ‘value’ analysis shouldn’t we also be looking at the ‘good but cheap’ vintages too, i.e. 2019 most obviously?

Eg/ Batailley '24 might be the best buy compared exclusively with '21, '17, '13, and '11, but for a lot of us that’s something of an academic question (unless your stylistic preference is for ‘off’ vintages). Is Batailley '24 a buy fullstop is arguably the more relevant question for most people?

Going back to the 2019 example, I see from a quick glance at winesearcher that it’s widely available at ~£23/~24 per bottle - i.e. cheaper than any of '24, '21, '17, '13, or '11 based on your chart above, and with generally speaking better reviews (I’d imagine the score differences for other wines would be more exaggerated in favour of '19). So for a ‘value’ analysis (best grape juice per pound), '19 should surely at least get a nod? I get the stylistic argument, but is anybody really arguing that their preferred style of red bordeaux is 2013-esque?

Anyway, you’re the expert not me - so ignore me if you’d like!

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Early days but I’m getting a sense of deja-vu from 12 months ago, where the producers have cut prices vs last year but not enough to make them interesting versus prior vintages. Take Pontet-Canet out at £360/6. A 9% cut on the '23 release price but only in-line with where '23 is now trading. Meh.

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Thanks for the analysis, Nick. I’m curious to see how things play out, though I’m not feeling too optimistic following the release of Pontet Canet at £360 per 6 IB.

Do they realise you can get the higher scored 2023 for £300? Not to mention this release is already more expensive than both the 2019 and 2020, which are in bottle.

I did pick up a Marie-Jeanne of Batailley yesterday for the novelty, but if things continue like this, that might end up being my only purchase.

I’d been planning to buy fairly broadly if the pricing made sense—mainly to stock up on early-drinking claret and maybe stretch to a few wines I wouldn’t normally justify. Still a long campaign ahead, though, so hopefully I’m just being pessimistic! But one has to think, what is the strategy here?

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Pontet Canet

A hard one to argue for in the light of the well-scored 2014, subject to a counter that the stylistic evolution of Pontet Canet is somewhat obscuring of a comparison across the past decade.

Yet as@alfredbaker1993 calls out, availability of 2023 at more or less the same price as the 2014, and 16% below the release price of 2024, is rather undermining of that line of thought.

James Lawther writes: Deep purple colour. Purity and depth of fruit on the nose. Cherry and fruit frais notes. Some sweetness on the palate. Firm tannins but wrapped in generous fruit. A certain power but not overcharged. 13.1%

Price and points

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Relative value analysis

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Branaire Ducru

On this analysis, 2014 gets the nod with its extra half point score.

Price and points

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Relative value analysis

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Green shoots, perhaps, following yesterday’s head scratching.

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I have a question about EP vs later retail prices. I read everywhere that buying EP is most of the time “not interesting because prices drop later on”.

Is this from the perspective of wine merchants, who can buy cheaper at some point?

From a consumer point of view, prices never drop vs en-primeur (ant least in Belgium). Even for 2021, not the best vintage in recent years, prices for consumers went up at least 10% since EP.

The max I’m able to score here is that prices remain equal (or get higher but a promotion is offered).

Last but not least - thanks as always for the vintage comparison! Would it make sense to replace 2013 with 2023? Would be interesting to see how the wines perform vs LY releases. Furthermore, 2013 was a true annus horribilis and is no longer available in retail here.

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Stephen Browett of Farr Vintners observed today that, in the UK at least, 2021s are being offered at prices 40% below the EP release prices.

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Thanks Jancis, definitely not the case here… looking at how much older vintages many retailers still have, I guess that prices will have to come down eventually

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Latour a Pomerol

Jancis’s evaluation of the impressively constituted 2014 makes the 11 year old wine the more compelling. Bear in mind that 9 years worth of storage costs adds around £12 to the fully loaded cost per bottle.

Price and Points

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Relative value analysis

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Thanks @fbackaert ! I’ve replaced 2013 with the 2014 vintage for the last couple of relative value analyses and will continue to do so.

I try not to compare very different (diametrically opposed) vintages such as 2023 and 2024 since it doesn’t really provide any insight into whether a new release is worth buying or not. Also secondary market price movements become more evident once the wine becomes physical.

We know that release prices in 2024 are going to be meaningfully down vs 2023, but the relative value analysis of comparative-ish vintages helps to answer the question “is it enough”?

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