Bordeaux primeurs 2010 - when to publish?

Kindly read this article just published in our Don’t quote me section and let us have your thoughts on when you think I should publish my individual tasting notes on the hundreds of embryonic 2010 bordeaux I taste as part of what is expected to be this year’s aggressive primeurs campaign.

It would also be helpful to know which sort of bordeaux you are especially interested in. ‘Investment grade’? Petits chateaux (though these can usually be bought relatively easily after bottling)? Dry and/or sweet whites? ‘Garage wines’?

Publish And Be Blessed

It seems to me the price of Bordeaux is set by general economic conditions- it is a financial asset. Supply of quality wine will always be limited, leading to scarcity. Demand will rise and fall with economic strength- in good times an asset with limited supply which runs with inflation is nirvana to investors (‘liquid gold’). Hence 2008 was (relatively) cheap even after Parker pronounced; 2009 took flight before Parker touched down. His scores matter for individual wines, but not for the general price level.

Where tasting notes are influential (for me) is in selecting which particular wines to buy, rather than in determining price. To use a popular example from last year, why pay for Phelan Segur when Capbern Gasqueton was similar in quality at half the price? A more reliable sample tasted at/nearer bottling a la Burgundy would be better but that is another issue.

So publish with a clear conscience; and because of scarcity publish early so those who wish to can buy rare wines before they’re gone (even more of an issue with Burgundy).

Writing from the perspective of an independent wine merchant, looking to give our customers a useful steer, we would be delighted if you and other wine commentators would hold back on publishing your tasting notes until after the prices were revealed, although I suspect the chateaux would simply delay the release of their prices until such time. We travel to Bordeaux each year for the en primeur tastings and return with bouncing enthusiasm for certain discoveries, tall poppies that stood out from the crowd, but the current system, where prices are dictated by scores, means that the opportunity to find a bargain for our customers is eliminated. We might as well just stay in London and simply offer the wines according to the points they receive, as the only way we can recommend value in the current set-up is to suggest a low-scoring wine that the commentators might have overlooked, which is both rare and demands a leap of faith. It has to change as the status quo only serves to benefit the oligarchs, be they buyers or chateau owners! Go for it, Jancis! Viva La Revolution!

[QUOTE=Malcolm Adam, Edinburgh;31469]It seems to me the price of Bordeaux is set by general economic conditions- it is a financial asset. Supply of quality wine will always be limited, leading to scarcity. Demand will rise and fall with economic strength- in good times an asset with limited supply which runs with inflation is nirvana to investors (‘liquid gold’). Hence 2008 was (relatively) cheap even after Parker pronounced; 2009 took flight before Parker touched down. His scores matter for individual wines, but not for the general price level.
[/QUOTE]

Malcom,

The funny thing about the “prevailing economic conditions” argument is that it only applies to the latest vintage on offer. I buy a lot of aged bordeaux at auction and you can often buy the 1959s, 1961s or 1966s for the price of the 2009. I think that Behavioural Economics have much more to say about this than proponent of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis.

Jancis, much as I applaud the sentiment an image of King Canute does come to mind. The unfortunate reality is that the 2009s were at least correctly priced, and given the speed with which many sold some were arguably under-priced. Is this the Parker/Robinson/Suckling axis at work, whipping up the market? Perhaps. But if you leave the critical field to others then they will accept the opening.

I’m afraid that I find myself simultaneously anxious to know all about the 2010s, and repulsed by the whole jamboree. Even though I don’t expect to buy 2010 I can’t help taking a perverse thrill from the spectacle of it all.

[QUOTE=Thomas De Waen, London;31471]Malcom,

The funny thing about the “prevailing economic conditions” argument is that it only applies to the latest vintage on offer. I buy a lot of aged bordeaux at auction and you can often buy the 1959s, 1961s or 1966s for the price of the 2009. I think that Behavioural Economics have much more to say about this than proponent of the Efficient Markets Hypothesis.[/QUOTE]

I agree, in part. There is also a real structural shift occurring in the market which will provide some genuine price support at these levels. Determining the relative influence of all these factors is impossible, although we will get some new information as we see what happens to prices when the physical cases of 2009 land in customers accounts.

I would very much like for tasting notes to be available before any wines/prices are released.

I use the tasting notes in advance to draw up a list of wines I am interested in. I then wait for the prices that these wines are released at before deciding to whether to buy.

I am only interested in the cheaper 4th and 5th cru classe wines and e.g. last year bought Batailley, Haut Batailley, du Tertre and Gloria. These all had at least 17 points from Jancis.

If the tasting scores are released just after the wines are released then I will not know how a wine compares to others until all the likely ‘cheaper’ wines are released. There would then be a greater likelihood of some of the earlier ones selling out, e.g. last year some such as Batailley actually sold out quite quickly.

Please publish the notes before the wines are released, but why not in a slightly less hurried fashion that results in less stress etc for the team?

Another vintage of the century

Jancis: publish the notes but not the scores. The latter can be added to the notes after summer and the notes themselves should provide sufficient guidance for any potential buyer whilst hopefully make speculation slightly more difficult.

Malcolm: “because of scarcity publish early so those who wish to can buy rare wines before they’re gone”

There is no scarcity of Bordeaux. Fine + Rare has three whole pages of Red Bordeaux 2009s, including Pontet Canet (which apparently flew off the shelves) and virtually all of the 1st growths. Sure you may end up paying more than when they were released but in the case of Pontet Canet it’s listed at 1,300, released below 1,000, a level at which it stayed only for a few days so unless you were really quick or had good relations with your broker, it’s likely you would have had to pay 1,100 for a case. Consider also the high inflation which means that 1,100 a year ago is 1,150 today at 4.5% of inflation.

Thanks for posing the question - a good one.

As a modest but regular purchaser of En-primeur Bordeaux and a reader of your tasting notes, I agree that there is an obvious tension between informing the consumer/purchaser, and being part of driving the market hype the Bordelaise create every year.

On balance, I think that publishing your notes is more helpful than not, even with the downside you mention.

While many of us (obviously!) read your notes avidly given you have the opportunity to taste what we do not, and your palate is likely to be substantially better informed than us amateurs in predicting how a wine will develop and to make an assessment of quality at this early stage, yours will not be the only tasting notes out there.

Wine merchants, James Sucking, as well as Mr Parker and many others will all still publish their notes/scores (I assume) Therefore publishing your notes after prices are set, however honourable, would not prevent market hype being created. It would however deny Purple Pagers access to a source of information we genuinely value and which allows us to make some kind of assessment on whether the price at release fits with our personal value equation.

I think the only way of preventing the hype you rightly identify, would be for a larger number of the most influential critics to adopt a similar approach.

A far away game

Living in Brazil, as I do, and not being the owner of a properly generous budget, taking part in this primeur game is not an option. When I buy Bordeaux wines, and this is not a frequent procedure, they are already price-settled. This, here, means stratospheric values, as compared to those in the UK. I certainly prefer investing in other, better-priced and many times higher-quality, wines, unless for studying purposes (I presently am a WSET Diploma student).

This being said, it would anyway be very interesting to see what would happen if all influential critics could postpone their reviews for, say, 3-4 months, which would seemingly suffice for all prices being revealed by the producers. Do it for a few consecutive years, and the effects will be clear. Which ones? It is a matter of experimentation and consequent results - we would have to wait to know.

Probably better off posting. Much of the pricing is probably already in place, and the scores that really matter are Parker’s — when he retires that may well be another matter.

Economics do play a role, but the Bordelais also know what they have – they taste the wines from year to year and know whether it’s good or know, so they have an idea of what sort of scores and prices they can push. I also imagine they have a pretty good idea of how a lot of the wines will be scored – particularly at the top where they know the tasters and many of them have been doing it for years.

Thanks so much for all the comments so far - hugely valuable.

Keep them coming. If nothing else, it encourages me to see that at least someone reads what we churn out.

I’m going to try to taste quite a bit below classed growth level this year as there can be such bargains here and quality is increasing all the time.

Thanks for asking Jancis. For want of more time to prattle on myself, can I just quickly vote for reviews/scores after prices. It might just save everyone a few quid! I agree that it would be better if done in cahoots with RP! I’m guessing that he is pretty sick of being used by the Bdx hype machine to the detrement of the consumer.

If I remember right, Parker’s scores came out well after prices during the 2008 campaign. I’m sure someone (liv-ex maybe?) could work out the effect this had on prices.

My situation is similar to Mark Knott’s. I have been pretty well priced out of the higher growths and am interested in finding left bank wines such as Lagrange, Clos du Marquis, La Tour Carnet and Potensac. I have good storage and look for a 10 year plus drinking window. Historically I have purchased second labels such a Clerc Milon, Les Fort and Duhart Milon but these are now quite pricey for me.

Bordeaux primeurs 2010

Go ahead and print your notes, but maybe hold back on the scores at least until after the prices are released and perhaps even until they’re re-tasted. The problem isn’t so much the early notes but the scores which especially tend to be (mis-)interpreted and misused as something “definitive”, and contribute most to the uncomfortable market-making element of wine journalism.

I no longer buy Bordeaux, Jancis, so I’m not directly concerned. But it’s so obvious that the whole primeurs tasting theater is geared to using the media as unpaid PR people that of course I would prefer to see the tasting notes published after the prices are out. Bordeaux plays with the sort of help from the referees that the rest of the wine world never sees in this tough league we play in…

“geared to using the media as unpaid PR people”

That’s a good point Victor.

Having read the arguments above I wouldn’t be too put out Jancis if you do delay your reviews and/or scores - and even have a word to RP and the others about it for that matter.

I would encourage you to publish your tasting notes and scores as early as possible to assist us consumers with our buying decisions whilst the more sought-after wines are available at first-tranche prices. As other PPers have said, I do not believe that delaying either your notes and/or your scores will have any material impact on prices unless all other respected commentators do the same - and that, I suggest, would be impossible to achieve.

There are only 5 or 6 critics that make any impact at all on prices (and arguably only really one), so personally I would have a chat with them and see if a concerted action is possible to delay publishing any notes until pricing is out. If they share your concerns, and I imagine most would, it might be possible.

If it works, you may even find some chateaux rushing to release prices so that their scores can be out in the market before their competitors.

Without a joint action though, I fear that it would be largely irrelevant. Primeur tasting notes are only really useful for customers to make a buying decision - if you alone publish late, the decisions will already have been made, and your influence decreased.