I know this is a bit of an unanswerable question, but I thought a discussion would be interesting.
Who would buy en primeur now, even or especially the 2007 Rhone?
Lot’s of people I know are steering well clear of it, and I’m inclined to hunker down and wait and see, but does anyone have anything to add?
I think I will certainly buy a bit of Rhone 2007. It is an exceptional vintage and it seems a shame not to participate. There are wines from several producers and regions I would like to buy and will probably do so.
I don’t think it is particularly expensive, especially for an attractive vintage. It may well be the case that you could still buy these wines from merchants in 2 or 3 years and maybe for not a lot more money. However, I take the view that if I can offord to buy a few cases of wines that I particularly rate now then I can see no reason not to do so. The recession or the posssible collapse in First Growth Bordeaux values has nothing to do with it as far as I am concerned. I am simply looking at buying a very good vintage at reasonable cost to drink over the next few years - this is not an investment.
On a different note, however, I cannot see me buying any Bordeaux 2008 en premieur. Prices would have to come down a long way to encourage me to buy a poor vinatge when I can buy already mature and better vintages at better prices, while I wait for my years 2000 and newer Bordeaux wines to become ready.
I’ve already bought a couple of cases of 2007 Southern Rhone, one to start drinking now (CdR) and another to forget about for awhile (CNDP). The wines were delicious, distinctive and well-priced. I buy to drink, not to profiteer, and the prices of both wines were such that I cannot imagine them being worth less in 3 years’ time. So why not?
But I’m not touching the 2007 or 2008 vintages of Bordeaux. I have quite enough 2004, 2005 & 2006 to be getting on with and I can’t see why I should spend more on a 2007 than I would spend on a superior 2004 - a vintage in a style much to my taste overall, so I keep coming back for more.
Surely 2007 will be seen as another 1997 for Bordeaux? A vintage that was wildly overpriced at the outset.
Even if the buzz that 2008s are better is correct, it’s awfully difficult to imagine who on earth will buy them en primeur.
We are busy making plans to taste them in late March/early April but it will surely be a strictly academic exercise.
I will buy a few wines I normally buy and which usually become scarce later, e.g. Fourrier’s Gevrey Chambertin Clos St Jacques. Others will be available in the secondary market, probably at lower prices I guess
I have bought a bit of S. Rhone. I’ve bought no bordeaux. I thought even the whites were overpriced, as good for Bordeaux whites as they were. I am buying no Burgs. I did not taste as extensively as JR and JH, but I found little of what I tasted at Howard Ripley or Bibendum inspiring, particularly the reds, especially at what I think are still high prices…I’d rather buy some more 2006 or older vintages.
I did buy quite a few '07 Rhones. Given the hype and excellent quality I thought it would be prudent to do so and for the top CNDPs it seems to have paid off. For example I don’t think Clos des Papes will go back down to the GBP400 level (now around GBP900 and this will likely continue higher).
I also wanted to stock up on excellent Gigondas, CdR, etc for future drinking that are well priced for the quality. These appelations may not go up much in price but I wanted to build up a good part of my cellar with these quality Rhones now rather than seek them out in the secondary market or needing to purchase in subsequent vintages…
and Italy looks very interesting for '04, '06 & '07!
2008 Bordeaux
I am told on very good authority that 2008 Bordeaux are of high quality but there is not much quantity. Primeur prices should be very interesting. Probably out of reach for us Brits owing to the demise of the pound, but the Americans and Japanese should find them bargains provided the primeur prices in euros don’t differ much from last year.
It still makes the 2004s look even more of a bargain than ever. If you find any still around, go for them.
Leaving aside Christopher’s wise Euro forex observations, here are my thoughts, that I had to cobble together for a Diploma dissertation on Bordeaux En Primeur back in November:
#1: buying unfinished wine carries quality risk. A drinker or investor should be compensated for taking that risk, and buying in the “en primeur window” - i.e. before finishing and bottling.
#2: if we assume other risky investments normally (perhaps the last few months notwithstanding!!) give returns in, say, 7-12% p.a. range, then over the Bordeaux 2 year “window”, a buyer should expect an increase in the IB price of their wine in the range 15-25% (let me say again, that this 7-12% is a generalisation, and the current market would be a damn-sight lower!!)
#3: if that 15-25% is not likely to be forthcoming (either due to price ‘gouging’ by producers like Bordelais chateaux, or due to economic factors hammering the market), DON’T BUY IN THE WINDOW, BUY IN BOTTLE when risk is much lower!
#4: the argument that buying en primeur secures stocks is, a mon avis, an increasingly weak one. With wine-searcher.com, it’s pretty straightforward to find most 2005s (after all, Liv-Ex couldn’t monitor market prices, even when they were rising, without trading going on!). All it takes is a bit of nous and patience. Therefore, see #3 above.
#5: let’s look at history (Bordeaux again, sorry). Jancis published a very interesting graph on these pages, courtesy of Liv-Ex, in late October. This showed the price evolution from day 1 of en primeur, for the 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006 and 2007 vintages. Each line was a basket of the 5 1ers Crus (most likely to increase in price consistently, it could be argued). If we look at that 2-year “en primeur window”, we see some very interesting results vs. the 15-25% total price increase ‘test’:
2000: Passes, just (for a top, top vintage!)
2001: Fail - I should never have bought en primeur
2002: Fail - practically doesn’t move; same conclusion as 2001
2003: Passes, barely - and arguably ONLY because of expectations of the 2005 vintage, making 2003 “appear good value”
2004: Passes, but almost certainly due to same factor as 2003
2005: Passes on its own merits (and how!) - absolutely buy en primeur
2006: Should pass, but again due to 2005 rises
2007: Too early to tell
#6: of course, #5 is based on a small basket (albeit an important ‘bellwether’ one for pricing) and there will be individual wines that break this mould (I have a half-dozen 2001 Rieussec that have certainly been worth getting en primeur, for example). However, here we’re almost getting into “stock picking”, rather than the generalisation I was trying to make in #5
#7: For 2007 Rhone, it’s a case of deciding whether you’d expect (given current market softness) a decent price rise over the 12-18 month “en primeur” window, and indeed whether you believe that’s a better thing to do with your money than invest it in whatever alternatives there are that might actually make you a positive return (!!). I’d be stunned if these wines become hugely unavailable post en primeur, and, in consequence that their market prices will have sky-rocketed, even though it is a good-looking vintage!
Well, that’s my 2-penneth…
I think a lot of this is academic. If one is buying wine with a concern over its value, in the future, in terms of money, then I could only assume that that person is intending to sell some or all of that wine for profit.
If this is the case, then one would be advised to invest elsewhere.
If one is intent upon drinking their wine either younger or aged, then really, isn’t this mainly about the state of one’s cellar and the desirability of the wines in question and that person’s financial situation?
If you want to enjoy say, Bordeaux, what difference is it how much it will be worth in ten years time? Isn’t the concern really, how much it costs now and whether or not one wants to be assured of getting the wine they want buying as a future or waiting until it hits the market, and taking a chance it will be in short supply?
I just don’t get all the fooferall over world economics. If you want the wine and can afford it…
If, on the other hand, you just want to make money; I recommend pork belly futures–win or lose, you can always find plenty of sausage and bacon at the local market for a reasonable price!
John, i agree - wine is for drinking (personally I pull all of my en primeurs straight out of bond and into the cellar with the express intention of drinking them!).
Nevertheless, the point holds true that, if prices aren’t going to rise (sufficiently) during the 2-year en primeur window, then there’s very little point in buying en primeur versus waiting until the wine’s been bottled, and the wine’s quality is far more assured.
A different way to put it is, isn’t it better to wait to buy the wine if you can get it for the same price in two years’ time, and (with the interest) buy a nice bottle of champagne to accompany the other wine then? More bang for your buck!
Who’d buy en primeur now?
I would still buy 2007 Sauternes and also 2007 Rhone (eg Coudoulet de Beaucastel) and of course CDP when that is released…
I wont be buying any en primeur from Bordeaux 08, just not worth it. Why would I pay more than I could pay for 2006’s or 2004’s that will represent better quality. I will buy some more Rhone 2007 and also stock up upon Italians from 2004. Regards burgundy 07, I would buy cautiously and probably only those wines that are difficult to obtain if left until after en primeur.
Can someone recommend a couple of London retailers who have a good selection of Rhone 07s?
I have always found Uncorked (http://www.uncorked.co.uk) very good on Rhones (and Burgundy as well). They won Rhone specialist of the year in the IWC a couple of years back
They are located in the City of London near Liverpool Street
Try Justerinis. They’re a little bit more expensive but have a good range of top wines.
Also take a look at Bordeaux Index & Farr Vintners. Though these big merchants don’t carry a lot of diverse wines, they sometimes have very good prices for what they offer.
En Primeur 2007
I bought Beaucastel rouge ( a friend was at a dinner and M.Perrin said that this would be the best vintage since 1945.
I bought Rieussec -similar potential.
That was all
I picked up on several writers comment that in a really good year as 2007 is said to be in the Rhone especially in the south the differential between the top wines and others is much narrower. So having bought Chateau de Beaucastel previously I decided to go with Coudoulet de Beaucastel as the price to quality ratio seemed unbeatable.
Merchants to buy Rhone from
I would also recommend Gauntleys of Nottingham. John is the agent for a number of leading producers including Pegau and Usseglio
[QUOTE=Alex Cussins, Brixham;19566]I picked up on several writers comment that in a really good year as 2007 is said to be in the Rhone especially in the south the differential between the top wines and others is much narrower. So having bought Chateau de Beaucastel previously I decided to go with Coudoulet de Beaucastel as the price to quality ratio seemed unbeatable.[/QUOTE]
Alex,
I also purchased Coudoulet & in Magnums under the same assumption. Let’s see if it pans out.