If it does everyone is to blame from chateau to middle man to retail ! To many getting a cut here from grass roots up , prices are correcting over the last 3 years , but my belief is that wines of bordeaux are over priced in new mediocre vintages to poor by 20-40 % even now , because the big investors are all but gone making there money trading the first
tranch wine and often a second tranch wave ! So were will e go in 2015 with bordeaux out of fashion and out priced and an ocean of wines out there to sell ! At these prices and from a mediocre vintage im feeling anything u dare buy in bond will instantly loose you 10-20 % on arrival if u tried to sell it ! Whilst all this has been happening in the last 2-3 years many have fled to consolidation due to a severe world bust or to buying burgundy and italian or other ! i think it will be this years en premier that will sell the least wines maybe ever , the only hope is if all the tiers of money margins cut there gross margins from top to bottom and we see a real 30 % reduction , but that in itself would kill en premier but not kill the pure true wine lover ,some wines of the last 6 years are in no mans land as you can ask x for it but its not selling as10-50 other people are selling the same thing , one thing is for sure bar the older good vintages in good nic prices are still coming down or deals to be had on offers , its not yet a buyers market but it may come soon , nothing would surprise me in the next 2 years re price reductions there is going to be zillions of bordeaux wines looking for a home ,restaurants are not buying these wines bar a few michelin starred ones , they have FLED the middle priced wines and top wines or replaced them with Burgundy ,not looking good at all for bordeaux me thinks
Rebound coming …
Hi Symon
I do agree, will be very interesting to see the pricing this year, but I believe Bordeaux will be just fine . . . Just as it was crazy for everyone to stampede after the 09s/10s at obscene prices because of ‘the Chinese’, IMO it is now equally absurd to write Bordeaux off. Why? Simply because the best is always expensive, and they are the best!
Of course taste is subjective and I expect many would disagree, but having tried as much as I possibly can from as many places as I can, I am back to Bordeaux. Xmas dinner wine was Domaine de Chevalier 2000 and it was magnificent. Tonight was the relatively minor Belgrave 2000 and it was splendid. Over the festive period, also drank a Jim Barry McCrae Wood 03 and a 99 Jadot Corton Pougets - both disappointing and comfortably more expensive. I love a good Burgundy, but they are so unreliable; you buy a good Bordeaux from a good vintage and it is going to be good . . .
So I will load up on as much 09 and 10 quality Bordeaux as I possibly can while the prices are as low as I reckon they will ever be!
Happy New Year one and all, now pass me the last of that claret!
Personally I think you are going to see a lot of wine price correcting in the very near future not only in the French wine market but also here in the U.S. in particular the California wines whose prices have been climbing steadily to the point now that a good Bordeaux can be had for less than a decent California wine. I may be wrong but New York wines are starting to climb the same price scale as well only to fall off that proverbial cliff. Makes you wonder what the so call wine market experts are telling these wineries. Or are the wineries just not listening?
Tom VanTine
Fishkill, New York
bordeaux
Well done david i dont know anyone back to bordeaux at my end bar 60s 70s 80s some very good value wines there like 25 % the 09 and 10 silly prices .all my friends buy burgundy now and italian or some german sparburgunder pinot !! Its seems the younger generations are boycotting bordeaux esp en-premier , bordeaux may be the biggest but is it the best , it has good reason to debate it is thats for sure !
small is beautiful seems to be in vogue at the mo rare burgundy and italian give this often and german wines ! bordeaux is generally mass produced , have u seen the zillions of wines from 2000 to 2011 for sale out there from bordeaux its scary ! Sales will always continue if the price is right and at auction things fiend there level thats for sure on the older wines in fact on any wine but because the hype has now gone out of bordeaux and the profits for the investors and soon the dealers in en premier are we going to see big panic out there all round re the 2015 bordeaux campaign of the latest vintage for sale , will uk and usa buyers order much much less wine to sell , may in fact they have to wait until delivery of the vintage being sold to get paid ,as the idea of paying up front and waiting 2 years for wine that costs to much in the first place and that could be worth less then is not appealing is it !!o and if you do want to drink your wine you pay on top in the en premier scheme another 20% to get out of bond and maybe duty as well not good hey !
I think unless you’re stuck in a wine desert somewhere or desperate to have magnums, halves or small output wines from rare RB properties, EP hasn’t made any financial sense since the 2000 vintage - and even then, for someone in France, it was pointless, since the wines could be found in shops on release at the same prices.
I can only assume that there are simply more people in more countries who want to secure the wine.
But however much I rant it’s still my favourite region for red wine, for all the reasons that David gives.
Of course, one should make the distinction between CCs and Cru Bourgeois, because the latter still represent excellent value and always have.
have as much as u want !!LOL
This is were i see the prob in 15 en -premier u can get what you want , instead of being told u can have 6 12 or 18 bt of something , on that basis you realize you now dont have to pay up front and can simply wait until it arrives and still pay the same price , knowing you can have as much as you want , so now you do not need to pay up front , the en-premier machine is effectively bust de-funked by greedy default ! This will be good for the wine lover natural in the future but do take advantage and buy well ! and dont give money up front , there is no need any more , this will bring prices down , so i would surgest this is the best way forward for buyers now flip it over to reality buying in this depressed bordeaux market , the en- premier bordeaux show is all but over !
2015 en-p
It will be interesting to see what happens this year in en-p sales ! im not knocking the quality of wines at all but feel there is no need ever to pay up front for wines you can get 2 years later at the same price and 3 years later maybe 20 % less . En-p = pay now get later its this bit i think could be doomed now or within 2 years were people will say NO we will not hand over our money only to wait 2 years and risk loss/and or be able to buy the wines at same price ! The second tier third tier etc buying is dead and gone , this is were en-premier made the elite lots of money ,it was very controlled for the dealers biggest buyers or there mates !!! The en-p in burgundy works nicely still for top wines or rare fine wines and allocations are happening in much the same way the bordeaux machine worked up until 09 10 vintages ! In bordeaux there seems to still be a downward pressure on prices just let them keep coming down its all good for true wine lovers and a disaster for the investor.
Someone out there must have some thoughts on this
I realise that Bordeaux is frequently not flavour of the month among posters on this forum, but someone must have some inside information on how the 2014 vintage is tasting. (Or is jancisrobinson.com following up on Jancis’ suggestion of a few years ago not to publish reviews and scores till after the wines come out?)
I think the next few weeks will be fascinating as people start tasting the wines and the chateaux make their pricing pitches.
From initial soundings, it seems traditional left bank drinkers will find wines that they like, but nobody knows if it’ll be at a price they can stomach.
Does anyone know anything more?
Thanks, Jancis, for the update.
I find the whole thing fascinating.
Surprised but happy to see that Sauternes are coming out well (I would have thought the dry autumn militated against the development of noble rot, but frankly, I’m way out of my league in making that assumption.)
The merchants who blog early e.g. BBR seem to me to be completely torn. They want to tell a positive story (they want us to buy the wine in the end) but they don’t want to be too positive because they fear the chateaux will therefore put their prices up (and thereby deter the consumer.) So they end up not really saying anything.
And weirdly the vintage (a bit ‘all over the place’) seems to be matching their dilemma.
Bordeaux EP has done wonders over the last few years for the amount of wine from the Rhone, Italy, Gimblett Gravels, Washington state and even Califonia that I’ve bought. Generally when tasted by Jancis et al it’s finished and the price reflects what they feel it’s worth in a global market as a wine.
My reasons for not buying this year will have nothing to with the quality of the wines, but will fundamentally come down to issues of trust, honesty, being treated with contempt, and basic economic competence.
I’ve sat here for a few minutes wondering whether to write this, but I don’t trust the Bordeaux EP market. If I buy EP I feel like I’m being knowingly fleeced by all concerned which will probably reduce the enjoyment of the wines once I come to drink them. I don’t really care if the system works for the ridiculous number of people involved, it doesn’t work for consumers.
Buying any 2014 EP will also encourage the thought that the vast lakes of unsold wine are worth what they would like them to be worth. A cursory look at any economics text book will indicate that they are not, but nobody seems willing to accept this. A little bit of ‘creative destruction’ is what’s needed.
Overtures from merchants almost seem to be telling us to help them help us by not buying. I might’ve completely misread A BBR blog, but that’s what I took from it.
Liv-ex have just produced the most comprehensive and revealing 68-page pamphlet that summarises all the data they have collected over the years. They show vividly that, of the 10 vintages 2004-2013, those who bought en primeur actually lost money on six, including all of the five most recent. A sobering thought indeed.
I bought quite a few bottles of 2012 en primeur which are now arriving. I compared the en primeur prices to current retail prices and there’s almost zero difference. I really don’t think it makes sense anymore to buy Bordeaux en primeur. The last vintage where it made sense financially was 2008. But today, the Bordelais are not likely to price their wines en primeur so low that someone else than them is making a profit. I feel like only those still buy en primeur who have always done so and are used to it.
the problems of stock just (literally) pile up for the producer.
Although, as you hint, it is largely the Bordeaux negociants who are holding the piles rather than the producers. I address some of these issues in an article to be published in a few hours’ time.
I love Bordeaux. I also now love being able to follow a wine’s development on this site before buying at a lower-than-en-primeur price. The producers will have to come up with something dramatic to convince me that it’s worth going back to the old risks - remember that undrinkable 1990 Ducru?
I wonder what effect deflation will have?
I’m still interested in Bordeaux
Jancis - if you’re reading, may I be the 4th person to say I am still interested in Bordeaux. So apologies for not replying to last week’s email, I didn’t think you meant it literally! I have been enjoying your commune by commune write-ups this week and look forward to those still to come. From the scores, and some of the write-ups, you seem quite favourable to the 2014s, but then are acerbic at the general level in the articles. Maybe it’s the distinction between the wines and the selling process/prices? I suppose I’m representative - enjoyed an annual en primeur process through the 2000s once I got to be able to (just) afford it, but in 2009 and 2010 had to hold breath as paid those high prices (but still pleased to have those wines in my cellar - at the age of 50 I’m hoping they will accompany a gentile retirement…). But since 2010 I’ve bought almost nothing - though would be very happy to buy lesser years if they just would stop charging the same as for good years. So there’s been a lot of speculation as to whether sooner or later the negotiants etc will have to blink and reduce prices to clear stock. I suppose the only point there is that in the housing market, people just refuse to sell below certain levels. The problem for the wine merchants is that unlike houses, in the end the stuff does just go off - and there’s a big extra new supply every year.
From the scores, and some of the write-ups, you seem quite favourable to the 2014s, but then are acerbic at the general level in the articles. Maybe it’s the distinction between the wines and the selling process/prices?
Absolutely right! There are some very nice 2014s, even if no absolute stonkers. But it’s the pricing and the pride I object to. Or rather, I’m just pointing out that there is no financial incentive to invest in the 2014 primeurs.
Will the bordeaux en primeur sales machine DIE in 2015
Jancis; I was interested in your comment “I am currently uploading lots of standalone tasting notes of absolutely thrilling mature Bordeaux”. I would be interested if there was some way of knowing when standalone notes on particular wines are being added. If it happens frequently it might be helpful to have a weekly/monthly list
Hi Jeremy. We all upload standalones intermittently but not with any regulated frequency. (I have quite a few waiting for me to upload them.) The simplest thing is just to use the Search. Fill in the the dates in the Date tasted section (perhaps with a starting date from when you last looked), then select Bordeaux or whatever region (or producer, appellation, etc) you are interested in.
We did at one time identify standalone notes (ie those not uploaded in an article) but the current system does not do that. I am not sure how practical that would be, or if it would make the search results too cluttered, but would that be more useful?
Will the bordeaux en primeur sale machine Die in 2015
Julia Thanks. I still think it would be helpful if a list of tasting notes that are not going to put in articles could be provided periodically because if you have a range of interests doing periodic searches of the type you are suggesting would be very time consuming.
Has anybody bought anything this year?
I’m interpreting from radio silence on the subject and the mostly unappealing release prices that people on this forum have so far opted not to buy anything. Maybe I’m wrong. Either way, I’d be interested if there was a wine that people have decided to buy from the Bordeaux En Primeur season